Sorry, My Visa Said No

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Happy Friday, folks. 

I sincerely hope that each and every one of you is physically ill after stuffing yourself with far too much turkey, rolls, and pecan pie. Even more, I hope that you're enjoying the opportunity to hang out with loved ones with your eyes glued to either football or futbol (big World Cup matchup against England today). It doesn't get any more American than that.

The NIL Deal Hall of Fame just added another esteemed member with one of the most Gen Z promotions yet. Fortnite has already dabbled in the NIL space with a commercial starring Texas players Quinn Ewers and Xavier Worthy, but Epic Studios, the studio behind the hit game, is doubling down on its CFB advertising with an epic "The Game"-inspired tournament between Ohio State and Michigan football legends.

In total, 8 teams of 4 (comprised of a current athlete, a former athlete, and a current esports player for each school with a professional esports athlete rounding out each team) battled it out on Sunday night for bragging rights. Oh, and a $50,000 prize.

The Blue earned itself a Victory Royale, with a team of Scoped, Cam Amine, Josh Ross, and Giovanni Lami eliminating Ohio State's Aydan, Javontae Jean-Baptiste, Cardale Jones, and Brian Kahler in the championship round.

I guess Cardale should stick to playing patients at childrens' hospitals...

Coming into the season, Kansas' win total projections according to Vegas were 2.5. Jayhawks bulls made themselves some serious money by hammering the over. KU now finds itself bowl eligible at 6-5 for the first time since 2008.

Though they have suffered some losses, both on the field and of their starting quarterback, since an early 5-0 start where they even managed to earn a #19 ranking, this team has greatly exceeded expectations and now sit at 8th in the Big 12 standings. Unsurprisingly, the man behind the wheel, Lance Leipold, has garnered plenty of praise for his NCAA 14-level rebuild in just his second as head coach.

Given the limited football resources at a program like Kansas, this turnaround has drawn "you up?" texts from a few larger programs looking to replace their own coaches, namely nearby Nebraska. However, the Jayhawks have opened up the bank to fight back against their "basketball school" reputation by extending Leipold through 2029.

The salary wasn't disclosed, but it's probably safe to assume that it's a significant bump above the 6 year, $16 million deal he signed prior to this season. The athletic department also announced new investments into facilities for the program with Leipold having a direct say in these plans. Lance is ready to play Minecraft on the plains of Lawrence.

College basketball has gotten off to a hot start with multiple top ten matchups and blue blood games already in the rearview mirror. The fast pace has shown up off the court, too, as the NIL deals that have become so familiar in football have been announced in waves. One such development has the potential to be particularly impactful, more for non-football athletes, but still for the earnings potential for thousands of athletes.

Social media has been ablaze over the last few years with clips of high school phenom Hansel Emmanuel showing off his handles and shooting touch. Every time he touches the court, it's immediately evident that he's the most talented player in the game. Even more impressive? He has done it all with one arm.

Emmanuel was born and raised in the Domincan Republic where his father was a professional basketball player. At just six years old, the already-talented youngster suffered an accident when a concrete wall fell on his arm, destroying all of its tendons and necessitating amputation.

However, his passion for the sport and work ethic allowed him to persevere and earn the attention of first high school and then college coaches. He moved to play high school ball in Florida before committing to play at the next level at Northwestern State.

His incredible story and on-court ability have also attracted the attention of brands hoping to reward him and tap into his large following through NIL deals. Unfortunately, few have been able to do so. The problem? His visa.

For amateur athletes that have moved to the US with traditional visas, there are restrictions on their earning abilities, including through NIL activities. This has prevented them from cashing in on their name, image, likeness like their American teammates have been able to. While there are few international athletes in college football, an average of 2.2 players in every college basketball program are foreigners, meaning there are many athletes who have been excluded from the NIL landscape.

Coaches have been looking at creative ways around to get around this, including playing in more international games and tournaments, such as the Battle 4 Atlantis basketball tournament played every year in the Bahamas. Unfortunately, the Kentucky Wildcats didn't receive an invite this year. Instead, the team took a bonding trip to the resort in August.

This is significant because the Wildcats are led by star player Oscar Tschiebwe, a transfer from the Democratic Republic of Congo who won the Naismith award last year given to the nation's best college basketball player. Despite the value that such a distinction would generally provide, the hooper hasn't been able to cash in on this fame because of his American visa.

Visa rules don't apply in the Bahamas, though, baby!

In the team's few days in the islands, while his teammates were soaking in some rays and sipping on piña coladas, Tschiebwe was hard at work signing autographs and shooting brand endorsements to squeeze out every last NIL cent he could while legally allowed to do so. In total, he earned more than $500K in just a couple of days. Just another day in the office, I guess.

For the time being, these types of money missions masked as "bonding trips" are likely to quickly become the new norm. Just as in football, these sorts of NIL opportunities will be weaponized in recruiting as ways to convince foreign players that they will make as much money as possible at a school through these sorts of creative strategies. However, another potential route might make such exorbitant tactics unnecessary.

Back to Emmanuel, he was just granted an O-1 visa. This visa class allows exceptionally gifted individuals (generally migrants in science, art, or business... nerds) to move to the US and earn without the restrictions posed by ordinary student visas. Hansel will now be able to shoot commercials for Hooters and post Instagram stories for kombucha companies like the rest of his team.

Unfortunately, even though making it as a D1 athlete prolly means you have to have quite a damn bit of "extraordinary ability", most of them still are unlikely to be approved for O-1s according to most visa attorneys, including Emmanuel's. Instead, there's growing optimism that regulators will step in to update visa guidelines for foreign student athletes to better reflect the evolving status of NIL and collegiate athletics and allow them to participate.

The earning potential of NIL, particularly for older athletes, also highlights another interesting side effect of the NIL era: college sports collectively might become the deepest in terms of talent that they've ever been.

Given his accolades, some might wonder why Tschiebwe came back for another season rather than declare for the NBA draft. Unfortunately, Tschiebwe's skillset is one that would've made him a star in the pro game of decades past. His back-to-the-basket style makes him less likely to succeed in today's stretch professional game. He would have likely been a late first or early second round pick, a draft position which would pay just above $2 million annually on the rookie contract.

Rather than take his chances on this lower signing bonus and hope to make more in his next contract, he opted to come back for another year to further develop his game, get his college degree, and (most importantly, unfortunately...) make more than the 2 mil he would have earned in the draft. This same thought process might inspire athletes in every sport to consider the potential benefits, financial and other, to staying in school for another year.

Underclassman stars like Bryce Young or Bijan Robinson might pass up on the draft to make millions while still in college.

Okay, not really. Both are locks to go in the top 15 of the 2023 NFL draft if not higher. However, other players faced with this same decision who have much wider potential draft outcomes like an Anthony Richardson or Nolan Smith could choose to play again in 2023-2024. Each has draft projections ranging from the first to fifth round, and the difference in the signing bonus that comes with the upper and lower ends of this range is one of tens of millions of dollars.

This could lead to older, deeper, better teams than we've ever seen before. Hopefully, that means even better football.

It's always the "slow weeks." TCU did it again. The Pac-12 produced a couple Hollywood blockbusters. Even Spencer Rattler showed out for one night and one night only. Quick recap:

• After convincing themselves that they were on a fast track to a rematch with the Dawgs in Indy, #5 Tennessee choked as Spencer Rattler and the Cocks piled on the Vols 63-38. Heupel's squad fell to #9, and when you consider the fact that Heisman contender Hendon Hooker is out for the year with a torn ACL (🙏) and the Vanderbilt Commodores(!) are 2-0 in November in SEC play in November, the in-state game between the two in Nashville tomorrow just got a little bit more interesting...🍿

• If you went to bed at a reasonable hour, you missed out on the Oscar nominations that were the Pac-12 games last week. First, #7 USC jumped to #6 with a crazy win over #18 (then #16) crosstown UCLA. Caleb Williams might have won himself a Heisman in the process. Further north, the #12 Oregon Ducks bounced back from the UDub loss and took down the #10 Utah Utes. They moved to #9 and #14, respectively.

• Hopefully, you aren't Sonny Dykes' first son because if so, you may or may not have been offered up for whatever magic has surrounded #4 TCU this year. After a series of nail biters and comebacks, TCU had its most unlikely win yet with a running clock, rushed field goal to top their rivals, the Baylor Bears, as time expired. The Froggies, man...

This week also happens to be the best of the year... it's rivalry week. The festivities started last night with the Egg Bowl (aka Kiffin's last game in Oxford...) where the Rebels fell in another epic match with Mississippi State. More big games:

• Florida and #15 Florida State (my money is on AR and the Gators despite being 10 point dogs...)

• #15 Notre Dame and #6 USC (Freeman and the Irish are hot rn, but a #15 ranking after losses to StanFORD AND MARSHALL IS TRASH)

• #3 Michigan and #2 Ohio State (Buckeyes are more than a touchdown favorites, but I'm rolling with Blake Corum)

Last week of the regular season for most. Things might be winding down on the field, but the real drama behind closed doors is about to really begin. Expect some major coaching change announcements and transfer portals news between now and the next edition next Friday. 

Soak it all in, folks.

While we're in the midst of international football szn, make sure to stay up to date on all the best in soccer!

Cheers to another day,

Trey