My School Signed More Too-Young-To-Vote Players Than Your School

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Happy Friday, folks.

The votes are in, and none of you are the world's biggest Kansas City Chiefs fan.

That honor goes to Xaviar Bubudar, owner of the K(F)C-Famous fan account @chiefsaholic, who has grown a following for his unique approach to rooting on Pat Mahomes which includes adorning a full-body wolf costume at every game, home and away.

Given the cost of NFL tickets and the expenses associated with traveling to so many away games, particularly for a guy who seems to be a current or very recent student of Kansas State, many have wondered how Bubudar affords so many games. His answer: "I make a good living. Hustle in private."🤔

Apparently, he ordered his canine outfit in sport mode because that "hustle in private" action seems to have been robbing banks.

Yeah. His community was concerned over his recent lack of social media activity, and it didn't take too long for them to find his arrest pictures along with actual pictures from the hold-up in Tulsa. The best part? He was wearing the exact same costume that he does for every game.

Many believe that he was on his way to the team's matchup with the Texans in Houston, and he found the money to pay for it at the Teachers Credit Union bank, a tactic which he is now suspected of using on his way to all of his away games. Hey, furries gotta hustle, too.

The small school coaches are a-cryin'

UTSA HC Jeff Traylor tweeted the following on Monday regarding the transfer portal

His concerns aren't unique, and they've been particularly echoed by Pitt HC Pat Narduzzi who claimed that he'd heard of multiple schools offering stud North Carolina quarterback Drake Maye $5 million (!) to transfer to their schools for what is likely to be a single season rental before he hears his name called second in next year's NFL draft.

North Carolina general Mack Brown likely appreciated his ACC foe's concern, chiming in that he was disgusted by the rampant tampering occurring in the college football transfer portal where other schools are reaching out to players (or their family, former high school coaches, trainers, etc) on other teams before they've entered the portal to offer them the good stuff to get them to transfer.

Narduzzi was vocal about his own players being poached last year, explicitly accusing USC of tampering with then-Pitt receiver Jordan Addison who packed his swimsuit and selfie stick for his move to LA, reportedly chasing a $2 million carrot at the end of an NIL stick. Such is the result of legalizing NIL and opening up the transfer portal at the same time at the college level.

The interesting thing about all of these claims is that there seem to have been no actual reporting of infractions. I'm growing just as annoyed by the coaches crying about it as I am those engaging in the tampering itself. There are clearly ways to try to reign in violations by reporting them to the NCAA, and most of these public complaints fail to actually name the responsible teams.

If we want actual enforcement of anti-tampering rules to put an end to the practice, it's going to require publicly outing the responsible parties. Let public shaming (and an NCAA violation) do its work. Until then, expect Pat to continue to cry.

Fans of the NFL are about to get their fix of Pat Mahomes and Josh Allen between thumbnails from PewDiePie and Live Coffeeshop Jazz Ambience.

The NFL agreed to a new deal with YouTube parent Google for the rights to the league's Sunday Ticket. The new agreement makes the streaming and video platform the new home for the package beginning next season for a whopping $2.5 billion annually, something previous platform DirecTV (was paying $1.5B) simply couldn't match. In fact, the network wasn't even among the finalists, a group reportedly consisting instead of Google, Disney, Amazon, and Apple.

Something seem similar among those four? They're all streamers.

After Amazon already grabbed rights to Thursday Night Football and other streamers have inquired about other sports leagues (including the Pac-12 and Big 12's media rights), it's clear that not only are these types of companies willing to dabble in live football, but they tend to have the most money to spend on it, too. Get ready for the College Football Playoffs on Netflix here in 2030.

There are some pretty big shifts coming to college football over the next few years.

Beginning next season, BYU, UCF, Houston, and Cinci are joining the Big 12.

In 2024, USC and UCLA are headed to the Big Ten and the College Football Playoffs are expanding to 12 teams.

The following year, Texas and OU are joining the SEC.

Some Big 12 officials are in favor of ripping off the "let's just throw all of college football in a blender and mix it up" bandaid a year early.

A recent report came out that many are in favor of pushing the UT and OU divorce up a year barring negotiations between the conferences and Fox who owns the Big 12's media rights.

Many are optimistic that an agreement will be reached, one which will likely include some decreased buyout of the revenue distribution each school would be allotted for their membership in their current conference.

Many hope that this thing does get pushed up a year. I don't think any of us want TWO full years of the remaining Big 12 schools' Horns Down tour.

For the Pre-Law majors, Illinois became the 25th state to legalize NIL earnings for high schoolers. These updates are becoming a weekly occurrence, reminding me that I was robbed by having to mow lawns and clean pools for money in high school. Well, that and the fact that I lack the functional athleticism needed to make money with NIL.

Many an eyebrow were raised when the NCAA hired a politician with no athletic department experience to be its next President, a move clearly foreshadowing future mimosa brunch dates between the organization and federal government.

Not even a week has passed since the announcement, and federal legislation has already been proposed to reign in the wild mustang that is NIL.

Senators Tommy Tuberville (former Auburn and Cinci Head Coach) and Joe Manchin (rep from an underperforming football state) are aiming to release the bill in the spring of this coming year, and though most details are still being ironed out, it's not likely that the bill will grant the NCAA antitrust exemptions, the main goal for the organization since the Alston ruling.

The politicians both claimed that they want to minimize Congress' involvement in regulating the NCAA, but they do want to reign in the current recruiting landscape. Some sort of structure would likely be a welcome change for all involved parties, from coaches to boosters, given the hectic market of today.

My curiosity on the math behind game lines and predictions led me down the rabbit hole that is the sports gambling industry. Even if you're not a bettor yourself, I highly recommend checking out the Raising Stake newsletter, one of the best sources of in-depth coverage and analysis of this incredibly fascinating industry, even for just curious observers. The best part? It's free. One click is all it takes:

56.4% of college football fans do not follow high school recruiting, a number I completely made up but feel moderately confident in throwing out there.

However, these "only watch the games" fans are missing out on 99% of the action, as most coaches would admit to you that college football is a talent acquisition business. Most of that process for the next 3-4 seasons took place over the last three days during the Early National Signing Period.

Starting Wednesday and ending tonight, high school football players could finally sign their binding national letters of intent (NLI; distinct from NIL, though if we're being honest, they're about the same these days...) to the college of their choice, locking them in for one year with an athletic scholarship.

Having this event pre-Saint Nick is a new introduction, and up until two years ago, there was but a single signing window for high school recruits which opened in February. Though that February window is still an option for recruits, the vast majority (~80%), particularly the more highly ranked recruits, sign before New Years, so the future Heisman and CFP winners are all but moved into their homes for next season.

So who should we expect to be good for the next few years?

Unfortunately for fans of the underdogs out there, mostly the same teams that have been good for the last decade.

Below are the current team recruiting class rankings according to On3:

Going from the left to right, you see the team's overall ranking on the left of the logo, then the number of 5 stars (the best 32 players in the country), 4 stars (the next ~300), 3 stars, total number of signees, then the average player ranking, meaning those with higher values (like Bama) not only signed the best class overall, but the average player in that class was higher than the average for any other team.

Believe it or not, good players want to play with other good players. Nowhere is this more doable than in Tuscaloosa where UA closed on its 10th recruiting title under Saban. It should come as no surprise that the Tide have also won 6 national championships during this period.

Some of the other top teams over the last few years ranked very highly yet again, too. UGA came in at number two this year amidst its quest for a second straight national title. In the last 5 years, Kirby pulled the top ranked class in 2018 and 2020 and has finished no lower than 4th. We're seeing the consequences of this dominance on the field.

Considering the lack of recent success on the field for Texas and Miami, some might be surprised by their third and fourth ranked classes. However, both programs are blue bloods with national followings and promising first or second year coaches selling the future of the program. It also doesn't hurt that both are very active in the NIL space. Recruiting has never been an issue for either school, but even so, they've really outkicked their coverage this year.

The rest of the list shouldn't come as too big of a surprise. Mostly big name programs with storied histories and lots of recent (last 5 years) NFL draft picks.

Though schools have their own internal recruiting boards compiled by their recruiting staffs, they tend to mostly mirror those compiled by recruiting sites like 247 and Rivals which use athletic testing numbers, camp performances, and in-game evaluations to rank thousands of high school players a year.

Just how accurate are these rankings? On an individual level, very.

Over the last five years, five star players have been drafted at a 57.9% clip, 4 stars at 22.5%, 3 stars at 6.1%.

Given how monumental these few days are in shaping the next few years of college football, both from a winning and individual player level, it makes sense that many were developing arthritis as they incessantly refreshed Twitter in hopes of flipping Arch Manning to [insert your school here].

However, though Oregon managed to make a few big dramatic splashes, this year was relatively calm.

In the past, there have generally been a few huge commitments and flips on signing day which have made headlines and inspired many message board posts titled "[insert your head coach here] has to go. Terrible miss."

One potential culprit for the relatively slow day? Actually NIL

While most are rightfully disgusted with the current NIL landscape, these deals might've caused athletes to finalize their plans months in advance and stick to them because the contracts have already been finalized. There's also growing urgency when more schools are looking at the transfer portal as a viable way of building their rosters, causing more high school prospects to recognize the need to lock in their spots (and financial packages) before a school offers these terms to a more experienced player from the portal.

Early signing day might also explain the recent trend of college coaches being fired earlier in the season and leaving for greener pastures prior to their current schools' postseason games.

Most seasons wrap up in the final week of November, meaning there are only three weeks between the final awkward post-game handshake and the sounds of pen on paper in high school libraries and auditoriums around the country. This gives coaches very little time to put the finishing touches on their recruiting classes, even less for coaches trying to come into new schools, meet and keep their existing commits, and still try to sign a few uncommitted or committed elsewhere prospects.

All this while still trying to manage the more mundane parts of accepting a new job like moving their families into a new house and finding the best burger in their new neighborhood.

The current college football calendar is a mess.

Squishing the ESD in between the end of the season and bowl season creates the chaos of the urgent expedited coaching carousel, and given how many kids are signing in that early period, there's little benefit in having the "regular" one just two months later.

One proposed solution (though the issue is far from the top of the agenda for the NCAA rn) is moving the early period to the summer before prospects' senior years. More than 500 kids commit by June prior to their senior year, anyways. By August 1, that number is far bigger.

If you're going to have an "early" signing day, why not actually make it early?

Kids that actually know where they want to go can sign before their senior season even begins, removing the extra stress that the decision process imposes on their and their families' lives. For kids that aren't ready, they can still sign in February like they used to.

Obviously, a lot can change between August 1 and the end of a season. For schools, it might put an end to the empty offering of high school kids that aren't instant takes as they're forced to honor commitments for athletes even if the player's senior season is underwhelming.

For recruits, it's possible that the coach they committed is gone. A provision could be included to free a recruit of their commitment if the head coach is fired or leaves by regular signing day. This would account for significant changes to the coaching staffs they committed to.

Though most players are recruited by their position coaches, there's far too much movement at the assistant level, and the line does have to be drawn somewhere.

Having this earlier period would also allow for schools to commit to recruiting the transfer portal during the transfer portal window (which current sandwiches ESD) after they have a solid idea of their incoming high school class. Then, coaches could still address any remaining needs from the high school ranks in the February signing period.

For now, there's just too much overlap, and it makes the already stressful job that is coaching all the more anxiety-inducing. For the sake of coaches everywhere, @NCAA, please put out the fire.

The best bowl games are finally coming up, most of them falling on either December 30, December 31 (Playoffs day), or January 2. Check out this schedule for a full list.

Scheduling update: Pigskin Economics will be off until January.

I started this newsletter just a few months ago looking to share my thoughts on a topic I love, and instead, I found a community that really enjoys the dollars and bills behind the helmets and pads. I'm deeply appreciative of each and every one of you, and I'll be hard at work in the lab looking for ways to continue to improve these emails.

If you have any feedback, please reply and let me know. Otherwise, thank you, have a happy holidays, and watch so much football that your eyes melt out of your skulls.

Cheers to another day,

Trey