Movie Mondays: House of the Dragon and Cinematic Universes

Welcome to The Modern Day Renaissance Man newsletter. I, Trey Layton, write about the things that interest me, often covering topics such as startups, sports, and entertainment. If you'd like to receive these newsletters directly in your email a few times a week, go ahead and subscribe to never miss an email!

Happy Monday, folks.

A wise philosopher once said:

This masterful observation seems to apply to the weather and to the box office lately. Just a week after I praised the importance of theatrical releases for studios, the status of theaters themselves has been called into question as Cineworld, owner of Regal, has announced its plans to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. For those of you that have forgotten what that means since you last prepped for your investment banking internship interview, Chapter 11 means that the company is able to continue to charge you $20 for your small popcorn and a drink combo while she takes some time to "find herself". It's not you, it's them. @CEO Mookie Greidinger, think you're gonna have to skip the guac at Chipotle🥑.

A few interesting releases in theaters this past weekend with Dragon Ball and Beast taking gold and first loser respectively. Don't plan on seeing either. The BO stats, courtesy of Box Office Mojo:

Not to get too *types in lower case* alternative on you, but have any of you ever heard of Game of Thrones? Yes? All of you? But did you know that there is a new spinoff called House of the Dragon that aired its first episode last night? Also yes? Like literally all of you? Guess I'm a bit more mainstream than I realized.

In reality, so many people were counting down the days until the return of Thrones that thousands experienced HBO app crashes while rushing to devour the franchise's first content since the OG's excuse of a conclusion in 2019. This prequel is the first of nine(!) potential spinoffs based on the novels by George R.R. Martin, who likely watched the premiere from the comfort of his yacht after signing a deal with HBO for the franchise in the mid-eight figs last year.

This type of investment in franchise content seems to be en vogue these days.

Netflix has Stranger Things and Knives Out. Amazon acquired James Bond and Rocky. Paramount has Star Trek and Transformers. Warner Bros. has a catalogue of Lord of the Rings, Harry Potter, and the DC Universe. Disney has a goldmine of Pixar, Marvel, and Star Wars.

Seemingly any movie/show with a hint of above-par interest has been met with briefcases (okay maybe wire transfers) of money to expand into a franchise. Execs are drooling over potential cInEmAtIc UnIvErSeS, and audiences are drowning in spinoff after spinoff of the content they've become oh-so-familiar with.

What is it about The Gray Man, Netflix's overbudgeted and underwhelming mediocre spy film that warranted a sequel AND a spinoff before the film was even released when they could've instead invested in much cheaper, better received originals like Hustle, Bird Box, and (okay, at least popular) The Kissing Booth?

Introducing the MCU strategy:

Iron Man introduced much of the world to RDJ in 2008. Marvel has since released 28 films with another 14 in development to go with a side of 16 existing shows and another 13 (I think, but who even knows tbh) in the works. They've even segmented them into "phases," with each serving as building blocks for future cinematic progress while weaving together stories and plot lines and introducing new characters.

It's been received quite well, both commercially and even critically. Marvel has grossed nearly $27B, far ahead of the world's second most lucrative franchise in Star Wars ($10B). These numbers can be expected to grow as the House of Mouse (Disney owns both franchises) has decade-long pipelines of projects lined up for each.

Such universes have become popular with studios for a few reasons.

Uno, the revenue floor for sequels is much higher than for a piece of original content. Likely, the first of the franchise was pretty successful commercially, thus warranting a second to be made. Even though the original's benchmark probably won't be reached, the minimum box office numbers will still attract enough fans of the original to top most of the less familiar works in theaters and streaming than the pieces which fans already have a relationship with.

Segundo, spinoffs allow for more creative experimentation in a controlled and cost-effective environment than would be afforded by betting on audiences forming attachments to brand new characters and stories. There was widespread existing excitement behind standalone projects for characters originating in popular broader universes such as with Han Solo, Spiderman, and even young Gru. Fans become familiar with new characters in smaller roles, and studios can gauge whether to go deeper into these characters' stories in standalones (though apparently Han Solo and your mother-in-law have something in common... both better in small doses, amirite?)

Having established what makes cinematic universes desirable, it begs the question of what really makes a project worthy of universal treatment. For starters, they require a core audience that absolutely loves them. Crazy concept, right?

Yet so many execs seem to be missing this point. Star Wars fans will devour anything with the Lucasfilm name attached to it, whether it be a new trilogy or even an animated game. The same goes for the family men supporting Fast and the Furious, space cars and all.

However, The Hitman's Bodyguard should have never returned for a second entry. Has anyone ever actually seen Conan, either? I don't know of many people getting Ryan Reynolds or shirtless barbarian tattoos, but there are more than a few people people in this world choosing to put this on their bodies in permanent ink:

One assessment I find to be interesting is the theme park test which asks, "Is this content the type of thing you could build a rollercoaster out of?"

Millions flock to Harry Potter World and to the Pirates of the Caribbean ride at Disney every year. The latter might be a cheap example (as the movie is actually inspired by the ride, something I learned way later than I should have but hoping to enlighten at least one of my readers out there🙏), but the point stands. Not to pick on Netflix, but what IP do they own that could draw amusement park crowds? Maybe Stranger Things? Even then, one can only eat so many overpriced Eggos in Hawkins before booking a trip aboard the Yuri Express to Orlando instead.

There's always a chance that some of these big bets we are seeing will pay off... perhaps the DC trials finally pay off or Jumanji: Final Level is not so final after all. Most, though, will fizzle out despite hundreds of millions in investments, indicating that the safest way to own a cinematic universe is to just buy one. Until then, Otherwise, the avalanche of cinematic uni... (no point in finishing, you know what I was typing) spinoffs and sequels and prequels and however the hell else producers will recycle stories are going to continue as part of the great IP Rush of 2022.

Weak week of releases. No wonder Cineworld is struggling:

• The Invitation (8/26 via theaters; feel like this is the 4729th attempt at this same concept🤷)

• Three Thousand Years of Longing (8/26 via theaters; massive $60M budget for what is probably going to be a damn good movie from George Miller starring Idris Elba and Tilda Swinton, but not expecting much in the way of ticket sales)

Oh well. More time to rewatch your money-hungry franchise of choice.

Cheers to another day,

Trey