Movie Mondays: Disney Carding Customers?

Welcome to The Modern Day Renaissance Man newsletter. I, Trey Layton, write about the things that interest me, often covering topics such as startups, sports, and entertainment. If you'd like to receive these newsletters directly in your email a few times a week, go ahead and subscribe to never miss an email!

Happy Monday, folks.

Netflix is celebrating the first few official days of fall in style by getting all juiced up on PSL. The streamer's Twitter account posted new teasers and trailers from about a dozen upcoming releases, many of them with scary vibes just in time for spooky szn. On a related note, Saturday is October... What?

The kingdom of TUDUM must've been jealous of all the hype that its competitors have been seemingly receiving recently with the massive premiers of House of the Dragon on HBO Max, The Rings of Power on Amazon Prime, and now Andor on Disney+. After a few episodes of each, my completely indisputable, totally irrefutable rankings as characters I'd want to grab a drink with are:

• Bix Caleen

• Princess Rhaenyra

• The Orcs

I've hinted before at my belief in the gaming industry, and yet another recent development supports this thesis. Throughout the entertainment landscape, money is being poured into companies and projects from investors recognizing the growth potential and from players spending thousands of dollars on Clash of Clans crowns using Mom's credit card. Not spoken from experience, of course.

The industry brought in $155 B in revenue in 2020 and is expected to cross the quarter trillion mark by 2025. China and the US are the two biggest markets, though the Chinese government has sorta killed the vibes lately by cracking down on the industry because it believes that games are bad for the health of young people, even going so far as to put a 3 hour WEEKLY limit on playing time. No such policies have been imposed on movies, but James Cameron should be shaking in his boots.

The ecosystem is also extremely complex, having branched into the development of a variety of new subindustries. While initial impressions might be consoles and game developers, other involved actors include competitive gamers, streaming platforms, advertisements, and even gambling. That's not even counting the billions spent every year on healthy snacks like pizza and performance recovery like thumb braces.

The market potential has attracted a variety of previously uninvolved companies. For instance, Netflix has dipped its toes into gaming by launching a handful of games that can be downloaded at no extra cost for subscribers from the app itself. The feature hasn't received much traction (less than 1% of users have actually played...), but they have still announced investments into expanding the library which already contains a few renditions of arcade classics as well as original titles based on their IP, mostly related to that one show with the kids from Hawkins.

Given the market size and its prominence in the entertainment space already, one company which has been surprisingly slow to embrace gaming has been Disney. This has not always been the case, but the timing on many of its past attempts seem to have been off. The company actually supported its own in-house game studio for nearly three decades, only shutting the doors of Disney Interactive in 2016. There were even a few successful projects in this window, most notably the critically and commercially successful, Disney Infinity.

Had the launch of Infinity been ten years later, Fortnite might not even be a thing today.

The game had many of the exact features included in the the games topping charts today. It was an open-world, multiplayer game in which players could play with friends and craft their own worlds and adventures. Players (well their parents) would purchase the game ($60) for their console of choice with a starter pack of three default characters (Mr. Incredible, Sully, and Captain Jack Sparrow) and access to the base stories of these three avatars. There were also hundreds of add-ons which could be unlocked from purchasing additional characters, stories, and accessories.

In the game itself, players could build, fight, and socialize with friends on shared customized islands or have just as much fun playing alone in the story mode. It was Roblox before Roblox. Dare I say... metaverse👀?

The game was a success, though it never approached the success that we've seen with more recent open world games. It might have been just too early for its time, and its player base was skewed younger because of the family focus of the beloved characters and stories.

Then-CEO Bob Iger (Iger? I barely know her!) hit the big red button to kill the franchise after three editions, though, as the project didn't quite hit the company's lofty internal projections. This decision also catalyzed the wider shutdown of Disney Interactive. Since, Disney's approach has been based off of the licensee model whereby the company allows third party developers to make games using Disney content for a fat check.

This decision has allowed the company to maintain a half-assed presence in gaming without having to actually devote its own resources to do so, thus limiting its risk. Entries in this vein have included the widely successful Kingdom Hearts franchise and, recognizing the growing market for more mature titles, games based in the Star Wars and Marvel universes.

The results from these licensed projects have varied, but not even the most successful ones have received the acclaim that the commitment of such a large brand like Disney's would suggest. However, either it's a response to the growing competition in entertainment or someone left out a package of stinky Muenster, 'cause Mickey has recently been sniffing around video games again.

Not only have the most recent mobile licensed projects had more traction (Disney Heroes, Disney Sorcerer's Arena, and the most recent announcement, the upcoming more ambitious multi-console game, Disney Dreamlight Valley), but the company also announced a partnership with Ravensburger, a leading game and puzzle maker, to develop Disney Lorcana, a trading card game in the genre of Pokemon, Magic the Gathering, or Yu-Gi-Oh!

The game is expected to initially launch in Q3 of 2023 with plans for new card drops four times a year. Resellers seem to have high expectations for the latest entrant to the massive card game market as some are already selling their cards (the first ones were made available at the D23 Expo a few weeks ago) for thousands of dollars... more than a year before they can actually be used in the game and before any of the rules are even known.

Though I was never able to get into the card genre myself, the global market for these games is massive. Many of these popular brands were forced to build their extensive followings by crafting brand fresh worlds and brand new characters. Though Disney's strong existing base of IP and customers means that the floor for Lorcana will likely be incredibly high, it will be interesting to see whether its upside can reach the heights of competitors or whether the originality and complexity of these innovative brands are part of the reason for their successes.

Entertainment companies stand at a pivotal point in the industry's timeline. Despite massive capital inflows, there is also more competition for consumers than ever before, competition that crosses verticals. Streamers are competing with other streamers but also with live content, social media, and gaming. Companies are forced to do whatever they can do to stay afloat, whether that means introducing ads and raising prices or investing in new products like video games.

For the consumer, this might mean improved products and content. However, it will also come with a price as companies tread water to find the cash to operate.

This past week's box office numbers:

Apparently engaging in the messiest press tour in recent memory drives butts to seats. Don't Worry Darling opened to a respectable $19.2 M, by far the weekend's biggest seller. That comes on a $35 million budget and actually exceeded most projections. I still don't even actually understand what all was happening behind the scenes with rumors of stars dropping out or getting fired, screaming matches between talent on set, and even Harry refusing to stop singing all of his lines. Okay, I made up that last one, but at the same time, do we have any evidence that it DIDN'T happen?🤔

A solid week of releases this week to get us into October.

• Blonde (9/28 via Netflix; Ana de Armas; that's the tweet)

• Bros (9/30 via theaters; the hype for this one seems to be peaking at the perfect time... I've heard everyone talking about it)

• Hocus Pocus 2 (9/30 via Disney+; might have to drive up to Salem to reunite with everyone's favorite witch sisters)

Cheers to another day,

Trey