Home Run Record? You Be the (Aaron) Judge

Welcome to The Modern Day Renaissance Man newsletter. I, Trey Layton, write about the things that interest me, often covering topics such as startups, sports, and entertainment. If you'd like to receive these newsletters directly in your email a few times a week, go ahead and subscribe to never miss an email!

Happy Friday, folks.

Forget the Kentucky football vs. basketball school debate... The Kansas Jayhawks entered this season with an O/U win total of 2.5 games. The Fightin' Leipolds already blew that number out of the water and are currently sitting at a sturdy 4-0 (first time since 2009) with wins over then-ranked, Houston, and conference foe, West Virginia. The team has already exceeded expectations, and in addition to a guaranteed win over Texas (sorry Horns fans... it was mandatory), just about every game left on their schedule looks winnable, particularly if junior signal caller Jalon Daniels continues to play at a legitimate Heisman-caliber level. No word yet on when Bill Self plans on complaining about the football program's success overshadowing the product on the hardtop.

In the NBA world, the drama surrounding the Phoenix Suns has been juicy. Team majority owner Robert Sarver was rightfully fined (though not enough) and suspended by the league after reports surfaced of his history of racist and misogynistic comments and actions. Since, there has been pressure on Sarver from minority owners and sponsors to sell his stakes in both the Suns and his WNBA franchise, the Phoenix Mercury. Sarver bought the team in 2004 for north of $400 million, and though Forbes valued the franchise at $1.8 billion last season, there are reports that the 2021 runner-ups could fetch up to $4 billion on the open market. While that might seem like an impressive 10x on his initial investment, I'm pretty sure that he actually lost money when adjusting for tRaNsItOrY inflation.

Moving from the suite to the bench, things haven't been so rosy, either. In Game 7 of the Western Conference semifinals last year, head coach Monty Williams benched star center Deandre Ayton en route to a season-ending rout at the hands of the Dallas Mavs. Ayton went on to agree to terms with the Indiana Pacers over the summer as a restricted free agent before the Suns matched the offer, thus forcing him to return to the team and cancel his Zillow listing. The 24 year old former 1st overall pick revealed this week that he and his head coach haven't spoken since the benching. Eek. Team chemistry is pretty ice cold for the team in the desert.

Last Saturday, I watched in horror as the ESPN broadcast of one of the ACC's highest-profile matchups of the season, the Clemson Tigers and Wake Forest Demon Deacons, was interrupted by an MLB at-bat. I was not alone in my distress. Twitter was ablaze (and really still is) over the Disney-owned network's audacity. Admittedly, the at-bat in reference had the potential to be a historic one as New York Yankee superstar Aaron Judge was just one big hit away from tying the all time home run record of 61 big ones. That's a lot of homers.

While Judge did not end up matching the record on Saturday, he did manage to do so on Wednesday in a game against the Toronto Blue Jays. Fans in attendance likely had to sell the house and car to be there, though. As Judge's stats have crept towards the 61 mark, Yankee ticket prices have soared. Many diehard baseball fans are paying for the chance to see Major League Baseball history. Others just want to secure the bag.

If Judge manages to break the record outright with a 62nd bomb, sports memorabilia experts have anticipated that the ball itself could fetch upwards of $10 M in auctions. That's quite the nest egg.

Even the ball that tied the record is projected to surpass the $2 million mark. Unfortunately, a few fans were in the vicinity with gloves a-ready for 61. The lights were just a bit too bright, though, and one man's retirement bounced right off his leather mitt. I can only imagine how nauseous the guy must've been watching that new house slip out of his buttery fingers.

The MLB has recognized the value of these balls and has actually implemented measures meant to prevent any... opportunistic replica-makers. They've microchipped the balls to ensure that there are no attempts to sell fraudulent "record" ones. Unclear whether they'll malfunction like the chips used by vets for tracking your pets. The GPS still keeps telling me that Spot is somewhere in the backyard when Dad clearly said that he was staying with Grandma for a little while...

Judge's historic season is also setting the 30 year old slugger up for a payday much larger than what a typical judicial civil servant would warrant. After turning down a nearly $215 million contract extension a few months ago (how many people could honestly ever do that???), most analysts believe that he will fetch a cool $320 million for 9 years of play. Bet on yourself, I guess.

The magnitude of this contract would put Judge on par with teammate, Gerrit Cole, who signed a nearly identical deal with the Yankees just a year ago. These mega contracts have become more common, both in baseball but also in other American sports leagues. Chief's quarterback Patrick Mahomes is on a 10-year, $450 M deal while the NBA's top earner is Nugget's do-it-all big Nikola Jokic, recent recipient of a supermax deal for $270 million for only 5 years.

What sets the upcoming Judge contract apart, though, is the fact that the MLB doesn't have a salary cap. While Mahomes' deal will account for nearly 1/5 of Kansas City's annual budget, if an MLB owner has the dough, there is no limit to how many bills he can throw.

The Yankees and Boston Red Sox are two of the biggest brands in sports, and there's a reason why they're always near the top of the league standings. These big market teams have a massive advantage with the ability to shell out for top talent while smaller market teams struggle to field squads that can look like they're straight out of Benchwarmers. Not only do these big market teams get more lucrative sponsorships and already are based in cities in which players want to live, but fan demand to support the team is also much less elastic.

If the Dodgers have a down year, there might be some fans who don't want to make the trip out to creatively-named Dodger Stadium, but there are still plenty of residents in LA willing and able to replace them so that the team never struggles to pack the stands and bring in consistent financial support. Meanwhile, if the Brewers struggle, Milwaukee doesn't have the fanbase that can make up for it. Fan interest, and thus revenue, responds more dramatically to fluctuations in team performance.

Trends like this only serve to reinforce the misbalance that exists between major and minor market teams. Big teams will always have the money to continue to outbid smaller city teams for top players and continue to win. For the latter, losing means less money and thus less talent; the gap between the sharks and the minnows continues to grow. For example, in 2008, the Yankees spent $209 M on its 25-man roster, $28 million of which went to JLo-coatrider Alex Rodriguez while the Florida Marlins paid out $21 M.

Total.

A salary cap could solve this issue and help to introduce the kind of parity that we see in leagues such as the NFL and NBA. Wisconsin supports the smallest market teams in the NFL (Green Bay Packers) and MLB (Brewers), and the fourth smallest in the NBA (Milwaukee Bucks).

A difference between the three?

• The Bucks won the NBA Finals in 2021.

• The Packers won the Super Bowl in 2011.

• The Brewers are one of six MLB teams to have never won the World Series.

@MLB, come on now. Let the little guy win.

Cheers to another day,

Trey