Football Fridays: The Pac 12 on... Netflix?

Welcome to The Modern Day Renaissance Man newsletter. I, Trey Layton, write about the things that interest me, often covering topics such as startups, sports, and entertainment. If you'd like to receive these newsletters directly in your email a few times a week, go ahead and subscribe to never miss an email!

Happy Friday, folks.

America's favorite sport is back. Every week during the season, millions of viewers tune in to watch the world's greatest athletes battle it out. Participants emerge drenched in blood, sweat, and plenty of tears. It's a glorious combination of brains and brawn, strategy and brutality, all in the name of chasing that final championship trophy which makes it all so worth it.

That's right. Lego Masters is back. No spoilers, but Will Arnett absolutely sent the wrong team packing on this week's season premiere.

For those of you who were unlucky enough to have missed out, fret not. You can check out the replay on Hulu.

Maybe, you were instead watching some Thursday Night Football on a competing streaming service, Amazon Prime. I never took Bezos for the biggest football fan (kinda had assumed cross country), but when the world's fifth-biggest company proposed last year, the NFL said yes to the marriage which will last until 2033, likely coinciding with Tom Brady's 10th ring.

Despite the deal making headlines when it was first announced, it seems that most fans were in buffalo wing-induced comas and missed the memo. Social media was ablaze with confused sports enthusiasts during the Week 2 matchup between the Chiefs and Chargers. Patty Mahomes defended his home turf against Justin Herbert and the Bolts en route to a 27-24 victory, but the real winner on the night was Amazon CEO, Andy Jassy.

Last year, the NFL reported that viewership numbers for TNF averaged 8.8 million pairs of eyes. Amazon reported that during its first game under the contract, 13 million people tuned in. Many of these were also likely new subscribers (aka spenders) as the company also reported its largest ever subscription growth numbers in a three hour period, far surpassing the previous records set during Prime Day.

Considering that an annual Prime membership runs customers $139, I'll let you do the math, but these massive numbers appear to justify the $1 billion Amazon is paying each year for the duration of the 11 year contract. More importantly, this success could serve as an example for other previous streamers which could have profound effects on the future of live sports.

"Hulu has live sports" is one of the most annoying commercials I've seen in my life. You know the one. It stars Damian Lillard, and I'm certain that I hear it at least 100 times every week. While those with the premium Hulu Live TV subscription (soon to be $75/mo...) are able to watch most live sports events such as the NFL, NBA, and the World Cup, something you could still do with a traditional cable package, the Amazon deal is another beast.

Prime is the exclusive home for TNF for the next 11 years. If you wanted to watch the Browns and Steelers last night (don't know why, but you do you), you could only have done so (legally) after shelling out for a membership. At least you also get free delivery on those barbecue-scented candles you also instinctively bought.

The competition for live sports broadcasting has been heating up. Deals have been struck with F1 and cricket. Following the surprising success of Drive to Survive, the Netflix-produced F1 series, the value of the sport soared to a $90M/yr deal with ESPN, and media giants are hoping to create a similar phenomenon around cricket en route to the Indian Premier League receiving bids $6.2B from Disney (International TV) and Viacom (Online Streaming). There've already been rumblings that the successful move for TNF will inspire similar deals for more big games and events in football, both professionally and in college.

The market for live sports is growing faster than that for on-demand content. Streamers are already sweating buckets as they're forced to raise prices, introduce ads, and even scrap completed projects. Given the money being made in college football and pumped into conference media rights deals, it wouldn't be shocking to see Netflix go and snag the Big 12 or Pac 12. In a few years, you'll only be lucky enough to watch those 1:00 AM Oregon State & Arizona Pac 12 After Dark matchups between play buttons for Ted Lasso and The Morning Show on Apple TV.

Given the ability to drop $100-$200 million budgets on various series and movies, the biggest obstacle for these streamers won't be a lack of money but rather a lack of available deals. The SEC, Big Ten, and ACC are all locked up for the decade. The Pac 12 and Big 12 are the most attractive conferences which will be available in the near future, but there is lots of uncertainty surrounding both of these given the recent conference realignments. Perhaps they take the quantity over quality approach and assemble the Avengers of Group of Five conferences with the Mountain West, MAC, and giant-slaying Sun Belt. Regardless, your Econ 101 notes hold up. The low supply of deals ➡️ buyers are going to pay a whole lot more.

It's interesting to see so many "disruptive" companies slowly beginning to resemble the incumbents which they tried to replace. With streaming, we went from Netflix being the go-to for seemingly unlimited movies and shows for a fraction of the cost of traditional TV - the death of cable. Now, consumers are paying $60/mo for five services, still have to deal with commercials, and oh yeah, now you can watch live sports. The future is here!

Not many changes to the AP poll.

• Oregon shot up to 15 from 25 after crushing the BYU Cougars

• Penn State jumped from 22 to 14 after likely ending Bryan Harsin's tenure at Auburn

• Ole Miss jumped 4 spots to 16 after similarly providing the nail in the coffin for Geoff Collins' tenure at Georgia Tech (side note: looking reaaaaal possible that we could see Primetime in The Big A 👀)

Pretty boring week last Saturday, but this weekend might prove to be a bit more exciting.

• #5 Clemson @ #21 Wake Forest

• #20 Florida @ #11 Tenn

• #10 Arky & #23 A&M (in Dallas... why???)

A few other under the radar games that could be fun, but meaningful games between rivals to welcome conference play is not something that I'll ever complain about.

If you haven't already, make sure to check out my other editions from this week:

• Movie Mondays: Did Adam Sandler Hack Uber?

• Startup Spotlight: Eat Counter

Know someone who might enjoy this newsletter? I'd really appreciate you forwarding it to them! Also, would love to connect with anyone through social media or simply respond to this email.

Cheers to another day,

Trey