Football Fridays: 12 Angry Teams

Welcome to The Modern Day Renaissance Man newsletter. I, Trey Layton, write about the things that interest me, often covering topics such as startups, sports, and entertainment. If you'd like to receive these newsletters directly in your email a few times a week, go ahead and subscribe to never miss an email!

Happy Friday, folks.

It happened.

Last Friday, the CFP board of managers voted unanimously to implement the 12-team playoff model by no later than 2026, potentially even by 2024... Details are still being worked out, but it seems that there will be auto bids for the six highest-ranked conference champions (the four highest of these receiving first round byes). The six remaining spots will be awarded at-large to the highest ranked teams that did not receive auto-bids.

For reference, in 2021, that would have meant:

• Game A: #1 Bama would have played the winner of #8 Ole Miss & #9 Oklahoma State

• Game B: #4 Baylor would have played the winner of #5 Georgia & #12 Pitt

• Game C: #2 Michigan would have played the winner of #7 Ohio State and #10 Michigan State

• Game D: #3 Cinci would have played the winner of #6 Notre Dame and #11 Utah

• The winners of games A & B would have played, the winner advancing to play the winner of the game between advancing teams from C & D in the championship.

So... we would have probably had the exact same final four that we already had. No offense to Baylor, but the Bears would have been no match for the eventual championship-winning Dawgs. We would have also had one rematch in the first round and potentially three in the second assuming the higher seeds won out in every game. But hey! At least we got to see Pitt get blown out in the first round and add another game of wear and tear on Georgia's roster /s.

Last week, I broke down the financial motivations underlying the expansion decision. This week, I'll explain exactly why this is horrible for college football.

Many look at sports such as college basketball, baseball, and even the NFL and laud the entertainment that comes with big playoff formats and the win or go home stakes that they provide. Though this might work with other sports, this shouldn't be at the base of any argument for applying expanded playoffs to a sport as unique as college football.

Expanding the playoffs will not lead to more schools "having a shot." Critics cry that "tHe SaMe FoUr TeAmS mAkE iT eVeRy TiMe." In reality, the same four teams have never made the playoffs twice, but even if it were true, expanding the playoff would do nothing to change the final group. Just look at the example above. Additional rounds merely lead to a few early round blowout games when top-seeded teams play far inferior opponents. It is already difficult in the four team model today to find four deserving squads, and most games are blowouts, particularly in the 1v4 games. In the 16 first round games that have been played under the playoff model so far, more than half have been 20 or more point wins. Only two of these were "upsets," and each of these was a #3 over a #2.

While there might be upsets in March Madness, there is simply less parity in college football than in any sport with a playoff model. Bama, UGA, or Ohio State could play the number 64 team in the country 1000 times and would win every. single. time. The NFL is built around the balance of power with measures like salary caps and better draft positions for worse teams. In basketball, physical advantages play a smaller role which allows for smaller or less athletic teams to still remain competitive. Plus, the one-and-done rules ensure that top programs often see complete overhauls annually as talented players declare early for the NBA draft.

In CFB, winning precedes more top high school players signing with the already-successful teams where they stay and develop for three years. Rule changes such as removing transfer portal restrictions have aimed to address this but have failed. There is little parity in college football, and expanding the playoffs would do nothing to change this. If anything, it just makes it more likely that blue bloods having down years (like 11-2 Ohio State this year) sneak in and get undeserved shots to face more accomplished yet less talented Cinci in an early round.

Second, expansion would only further threaten the value of bowl games. This point might prove futile what with the waves of star players already opting out of "meaningless" bowl games, but more playoff games means even less importance attached to once-great games such as the Cotton Bowl. Since the introduction of the playoffs, fans (and players) have been bombarded with slogans of "Who's in?" in reference to the playoffs in as early as August, convincing millions that anything short of the playoffs is a failure. No wonder kids are choosing to protect their future earnings when they're told that the Rose Bowl(!) is meaningless. It might be too late to close the gates on this trend, but I can assure you that expanding the playoffs will only exacerbate the issue.

Finally, and most importantly, expansion diminishes the value of the regular season. Every single Saturday in the Fall loses meaning when you attach the value of the season only to the post-season outcome. There are no more stakes. Few care about a Week 4 NFL game, but everyone watched the Super Bowl. The highlight of the NCAA tournament was the Saint Peter's run, but not a single person can name one of their regular season opponents. Conversely, I have a calendar marked up with the games I'm most looking forward to every single Saturday through December. Don't ruin the part of the sport we love in order to bail out blue bloods with free passes to the final 12.

Week 1 was a good one, and spoiler: Bama and Georgia are good at football. Some are calling Ohio State overrated following their slow offensive start, but I actually came away even more bullish on their season outlook. The defense (biggest ? entering the season) was stellar, and I find it hard to believe that an offense with that much firepower won't hit its stride in time for the big games left on the schedule. Also, have we considered that Notre Dame, the then-fifth ranked team in the nation, might actually be good? Now how 'bout them Gators? I've seen enough to buy into the Anthony Richardson hype. Hoping we get to see similar performances out of him for the rest of the season (except for on November 5 when the Gators travel to play my Aggies).

Biggest ranking changes:

• UGA (#2) leapfrogged tOSU (#3) after the bloodbath in Atlanta

• Florida went from unranked to #12 after the W over the Utes

• Notre Dame fell from 5 to 8, Utah fell from 7 to 13, and Oregon dropped from number 11 to the receiving votes category

Biggest matchups this coming weekend:

• #1 Bama heads to Austin to play the Horns. Tide by 50.

• #25 Tennessee at #17 Pitt. Money on Hendon and the Vols.

• #20 Kentucky @ #12 Florida. Game of the week imo.

• #22 Wake Forest at my dear Commodores. Keep the train rolling, Vandy.

For those unfortunate enough to miss the dumpster fire in NOLA last Sunday, LSU is going through it rn. Not only did they blow the game against a meh Florida State team, but their best player reportedly got into a shouting match with their head coach and deleted all LSU references from his social media accounts, this same head coach is throwing his own players under the bus, and fans are calling for his buyout after one year. In case you were curious, Brian Kelly was given a 10 year $95 million deal to get him to come to Baton Rouge from South Bend just a few months ago. The magic of that 2019 run and the legend of Joey B Shiesty grows more distant by the day.

There are certain things in life that are worth living for. Getting to watch college kids toss around the pigskin is one of them. Unfortunately, $$$ might be threatening how much longer we are able to say that.

Cheers to another day,

Trey