Bryan Harsin Booted, Surprising Literally Nobody

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Happy Friday, folks. 

Welcome to the first official edition of Pigskin Economics! In case you missed my last email, going forwards, this newsletter will be bringing you exclusively the latest and greatest in the business world of college football. If you're still interested in receiving emails about startups and venture, make sure to check out this newsletter's new evil twin, The Startup Breakdown. Here's to hoping that both of these newsletters get off to a better start than the Marcus Freeman era at Notre Dame...

In the NFL, Washington Commanders owner Dan Snyder made a military grade about-face since refusing to even consider selling the team he bought in 1999. Following allegations from more than 40 employees of workplace sexual harassment and abuse, Synder faced pressure from stakeholders across the NFL to sell. Instead, he doubled down on his commitment to remaining the owner, going so far as to hire private investigators to dig up dirt on the other league owners and coaches...

As of this week, however, Snyder has decided that the $5 billion sale price which the organization will likely fetch sounds kinda cool, after all. He liked the pitch deck prepared by the analysts at Bank of America enough to enlist their services in exploring potential exits. This doesn't necessarily mean that he will sell, but there are rumors that a certain Amazon founder might already have a pen and check ready to add to the team to the assets side of his balance sheet, right between his literally oversized yacht and world's tightest pants.

Onto the meat and potatoes of this week: Bryan Harsin is out at Auburn.

The news is about as surprising as the sun rising this morning (heads up: it will be rising an hour later bc of Daylight saving on Sunday😉), but it's still a big story given that there is an opening of yet another high profile coaching job, and arguably the biggest one of them all.

Harsin lasted less than two years on the Plains and had a record of 9-12. The hiring of the head honcho at Boise State with no obvious connection to the southeast was a head scratcher from day one. The Broncos are one of the premier small schools in the country, and Harsin had success while there, it was still a far cry from the bloodbath that is playing Alabama, Georgia, and LSU every single year in the SEC. 

Many of the influential people involved in the program had some 🤨🤨🤨 expressions when the name was first tossed out there, too. There was fierce internal opposition to hiring Harsin with half of Auburn's very active boosters lobbying hard for other candidates. The lack of confidence in the BH wasn't helped when Auburn lost their last five games in year one, both of Auburn's coordinators left after the season, the replacement offensive coordinator left after just 43 days (one fewer than Liz Truss lasted lol), and the program saw a massive 19 members of its roster leave the program via the transfer portal.

Harsin didn't exactly get a fair shot, though. The same boosters that were opposed to him before he was even hired were likely the people that had his name dragged through the mud with unsupported reports of player mistreatment and affairs with staffers over the offseason in an attempt to get him fired "with cause". He practically entered this season with the locks on the facilities already changed.

The outside noise surrounding the program made it difficult to keep the current team motivated, and the challenge posed by trying to convince recruits to come and play for a team with a lame duck coach was practically insurmountable. Auburn currently ranks last in the SEC in recruiting rankings for the 2023 cycle.

Things aren't all bad for Harsin, though. He has a hefty $15.8 million buyout to get up out of there. Half of that is due this year, and the remaining $7.5 million will be Venmo'd to him throughout the duration of his initial contract from 2023-2026. This sum is equal to 70% of his total contract value. He had been making $5.1 million this year with a $100K bump scheduled for each year he was at the helm.

Though things didn't go so rosy at Auburn, there are also still so many openings that another team is bound to take a shot at a guy with an 85-36 career record with experience coaching in the toughest division in college football. My money is on a return to his mountain west roots as the head man at now-open Colorado. Low expectations, mid salary, very high time🍁

Despite having been at AU for such a short time, most are actually more surprised that he was not fired sooner. Those Plains people reaaaaaally wanted him gone. The likely reason is that Auburn has already parted ways with its athletic director, Allen Greene, and was waiting for someone to remove the vacant sign from his desk before committing to a change of direction in football leadership.

Greene "resigned" in late August, his only notable move while at Auburn being his hire of Harsin a year ago. As with many AD-HC duos, most assumed that the two were a package deal. Following the split with Greene, university administrators chose to wait to hire Greene's replacement to allow him to make a decision on the head coach front. That replacement was announced on Monday when the school poached fellow SEC West member Mississippi State's John Cohen. He wasted no time in ripping off the bandaid. Harsin was fired the same day.

There are two major takeaways from this whole situation. The first is that Auburn is finally ready to play with the big boys when it comes to financial buy in. Second, many schools like Mississippi State are not.

War Eagle faithful are likely still dreaming about the magical Cam Newton 2010 title run or the crazy 2013 runner up campaign. The Tigers experienced seven above par seasons under Malzahn before deciding to fire him for never making another trip to Atlanta for the SEC championship. It's not like he was coaching in the same division (and recruiting in the same state) as the best coach of all time or anything...

• Not so fun fact (unless you're a Bama fan): there have been 52 coaches fired since Saban has been at Bama with an average of 3.5 hired/fired each year🤠

Boosters and administrators have been wrestling each other for power and influence for a decade, and neither side has managed to gain a leg up. This internal turmoil has left the program with no clear direction, and it has showed on the field. The biggest thing that has been holding back Auburn has been Auburn. 

However, they're finally taking a page out of the Michael Jackson playbook and starting with the man in the mirror. Not only are they cleaning house (spending an additional $6.5 million on assistant coach buyouts) to start afresh with an agreed-upon AD , but nosy boosters are agreeing to finally redirect their resources where they will be most useful.

In addition to luring Cohen with assurances that he will have will have free reign to manage the athletic department without outside pressure, the Auburn barons are also rallying together to bolster the program's ever-important NIL efforts. There are rumors that the school's collective (quick refresher on what those are) has pooled upwards of $13 million to support NIL efforts and allow the school to compete with the likes of its spend-happy division rivals.

There is confidence within the program that its newfound commitment to embracing the new age of college athletics will allow Cohen to have his pick with the next coach, potentially even by poaching one of the other Mississippi schools' coach in either Ole Miss' Lane Kiffin or Jackson State's Deion Sanders.

To win in this league, schools have to truly commit. That means investing millions into facilities, coaches, and yes, NIL. It seems that the Tiger faithful are finally deciding to do just that.

The departures, both past and potential future, of administrators and coaches from teams within the same division is also revealing of the growing divide between the haves and the have nots. Unfortunately, Mississippi State is of the latter category.

Cohen was making $1.1 million at Mississippi State before taking a $400K raise at Auburn. However, the salary was likely not the primary reason that Cohen left a school where he had played baseball as a student and then eventually returned as head baseball coach. Despite the ties to Starkville, the shiny promise of NIL support was too much for Cohen to turn down.

This is the second straight Mississippi State AD to be hired away by fellow SEC programs. Most believe that Ole Miss will also be raided should Cohen decide that Kiffin is the man for the football job (currently the betting favorite). Such is life in the world of NIL. It's not just players, but also coaches and administrators that take these deals into account. Gone are the days when career decisions were based on team history, conference affiliations, or personal connections. Today, the most important factor is NIL.

NIL money has quickly become the basis for modern program building, from high school recruiting to transfer portal raids. Having the money to spend on the most talented players allows leadership to put itself in the best position to succeed in a sport which is very quickly becoming pay-to-win.

Auburn has decided that it's willing to play ball. It will join the likes of Texas A&M, Georgia, and most importantly, Alabama in committing to pay whatever is necessary to be among the best. Not every school will be able to make the same commitment, though, and that spells dark clouds for the have nots of the future of college football.

On Tuesday, the first edition of the College Football Playoffs rankings dropped. There were a few pretty big takeaways:

• Tennessee opened as #1 followed by Ohio State then Georgia

• Clemson came in at #4, just above #5 Michigan

• Bama claimed #6 over undefeated #7 TCU...

Obviously, everyone in the world is in complete agreement over these rankings. No complaints from anyone online anywhere. Peace and harmony.

Admittedly, these initial rankings are pretty meaningless given that much of the controversy (sorry, I lied) will end up working itself out, some even as soon as this weekend. To start, the game of the year looms in Athens:

• #1 UT (sorry, Horns. Heupel and the Vols are the real UT until further notice) @ #3 UGA

  • Vols are 8.5 point underdogs...

• #6 Bama and #10 LSU

  • Winner takes the SEC West lead

• #24 Texas @ #13 Kansas State

  • Texas is the favorite despite 3 losses and the Wildcats' game last week being an actual war crime on prev. #9 Oklahoma State 48-0...

The SEC Championship will be all but decided this week. The winner of each of these top ten matchups takes the lead in their division (though if Bama wins, they still have to beat 8-1 Ole Miss next week to clinch). Given how poorly A&M's season has gone, I'm just here for the chaos. Give me all the one loss teams.

Everyone is elite. Everyone sucks. Everyone is... mediocre? I love football.

Again, make sure to check out The Startup Breakdown to get your weekly dose of venture and market news and analysis:

Cheers to another day,

Trey