- Pigskin Economics
- Posts
- The Big Ten Loses Big Names
The Big Ten Loses Big Names
Michigan HC and Big Ten Commissioner Both Likely to Take NFL Gigs
Welcome to the Pigskin Economics newsletter. By signing up for this newsletter, you're joining a community of dozens of hard-hitting, 4.4-running individuals looking to master the playbook on the business of college football. If you'd like to receive this newsletter directly in your inbox a few times a week, go ahead and subscribe to never miss an email!
Happy Friday, folks.
"He's short! He's so clearly short!"
The AT&T wedding commercial has been one of the most widely played over this past college football season, and it's slated to continue to run through the end of the year. While most fans watching their favorite team play this year have seen this commercial (and possibly its counterpart, the golf caddy interruption), few have stopped to identify the players shown on the rather hurtful interrupter's phone screen.
If they did, they'd see one of a variety of USC and Florida A&M players, all of whom were actually compensated by the telecom behemoth for their appearance in the shot. Given the widespread run of this commercial across the country, this has proven to be one of the more visible NIL deals to date, and it's pretty cool to see a company both creating pretty good commercials while also supporting real players now that t.
Something that wasn't quite so cool was the National Championship, a game which I wish could be wiped from my memory, and I'm only a new rider of the TCU bandwagon. In fact, the game was so ugly that it even put UGA in the record books with the largest bowl game margin of victory in CFB history. Not championship, bowl game.
The nationally-televised war crime earned Kirby a $1M bonus, and somehow that still doesn't seem like enough given how convincing the performance from the Dawgs was.
At least parents seem to have done the responsible thing by turning the TV off before their children could be further scarred, causing the game to have the lowest TV viewership numbers in the BCS and Playoff era with 17.2 million, just ~200K more than the regular season matchup between Michigan and Ohio State had...
Though the game itself was about over 3 minutes in, at least there was some drama in the stands. The $4.9 billion SoFi Stadium was already being criticized after city officials banned tailgating at the venue, but despite being an indoor stadium, attendees complained that it was raining on them during the game. That's because the stadium has open walls to allow the natural sunlight to shine on Rams games, hopefully blinding viewers from the team's awful showing this year.
Stadiums are also notorious for having exorbitant prices. The cost of living in Cali is also already ridiculous, and combining these two factors with iNfLaTiOn might make it seem like the cost of a dog at the game is more than a purebred poodle.
However, even with these factors considered, charging $9 for a hot dog, $15 for pizza and burritos, and $17 for a beer? No wonder Kirby was so angry and took it out on poor Max Duggan...
Possibly the only bigger loser than the Frog Faithful was Mattress Mack, the Texas legend who has built a cult following for his massive bets on Texas sports teams. Just a few months removed from costing sportsbooks $72.6 million in profit, an amount so large that executives had to issue explanations to their shareholders, the Texan wagered a $3M bet on the hometown Frogs.
Shooters shoot, MM.
Finally, the 2023 College Football Hall of Fame class was announced, and some big names are headed to Atlanta. Former stars like Tim Tebow, Eric Berry, and Luke Kuechly all earned everlasting glory, cementing their legacies in bronze for the rest of time.
However, it was the induction of Reggie Bush that really set the internet ablaze. Not because people thought he was undeserving, as he is unquestionably one of the greatest players to ever step on the field. No, the uproar was more of a call for the NCAA to do the right thing (for once) and return Bush's Heisman Trophy which was stripped a couple of years ago for accepting payments while at USC.
You know, the thing that is now legal and sort of throwing the sport in the blender?
Given that it is now legal, many (rightfully) believe that Bush should be forgiven and re-awarded the biggest honor in the sport. Frankly, if we're going to strip achievements for paying players before it was allowed, we'd have to nullify every national championship for the past three decades.
I have nothing but respect for Mattress Mack. However, Mack could have used some insights from my friends over at Raising Stakes, the newsletter bringing you the latest in sports betting. Even if you're not a degen gambler, you'll love reading about the industry looking to quantify the sport we all know and love.
|
Shakeups to Big Ten leadership has cleared up on one front but just gotten even messier on the other over the last few days. In fact, while Kevin Warren officially took the Bears CEO job, Michigan HC Jim Harbaugh now faces penalties from the NCAA for multiple heavy violations.
The NCAA is investigating five total violations agains the Maize and Blue's head man. Four are Level II (minor) violations reportedly related to having too many coaches at practice, meeting with two recruits during the pandemic dead period, and using live video to monitor player workouts. Criminal.
However, the significant Level I violation is reportedly for misleading NCAA officials about the four minor ones. Moral of the story, when you find yourself in a hole, stop digging.
If punished, there might be significant recruiting restrictions imposed on the Wolverines, and Harbaugh might even face a multigame suspension.
Not that Michigan would ever do this to a coach that has lost a total of 0 regular season games over the past two seasons with two straight Big Ten championships, but these violations would allow the program to fire its head man for cause. More real is the possibility that he takes an NFL job as he has been pretty open about his interest in returning to the professional ranks.
Harbaugh coached six seasons for the San Francisco 49ers after his tenure with Stanford, building a respectable 59-36-1 record in the pros. He interviewed with the Vikings after last season and fully expected to get the gig before it eventually went to Kevin O'Connell. Don't cry too hard for JH who walked away with a contract extension and shiny raise from his alma mater.
Now, he has his name in three hats with interest from the Panthers, Colts, and Broncos. The latest reports suggest that he has even interviewed with the Broncos, and Harbaugh is now believed to be the frontrunner for the head job in the Mile High City.
Harbaugh's constant flirtation with the professional ranks is leaving AD Warde Manuel in a tough spot. Not only does he have to subtly put together a list of replacement candidates, but he also has to try to maintain some sort of buy in from the alumni who are rightfully hesitant to invest their money in a program potentially sailing without a captain.
It's also putting the Wolverines at a significant disadvantage on the recruiting trail as other teams can use it to negatively recruit against the Blue and it's pretty tough for coaches to sell recruits and their parents on coming to play in the Big House when there's a high likelihood that they don't know who the coach will be next year. Whoever the coach is next year, whether Harbaugh or other, might be operating at a talent disadvantage.
At least for now, Michigan is hoping not to hang onto Harbaugh and his khakis. University President Santa Ono recently tweeted his words of support for the head coach:
I pleased to share that I have been having very positive and constructive conversations with our Athletic Director and Football Coach. Warde Manuel and I both want to see Jim Harbaugh stay as the head football coach of the University of Michigan Wolverines. #GoBlue 〽️
— Santa Ono (@SantaJOno)
9:21 PM • Jan 12, 2023
To which Harbaugh responded:
Not exactly reassuring.
Many in the Michigan camp have been putting together lists of potential replacements, and though it might hurt to lose one of your own, Wolverine fans can take solace knowing that they will have one of the most coveted openings in the sport. Some floated names:
Matt Campbell, Iowa State HC
Mike Hart, Michigan RB Coach
Dave Aranda, Baylor HC
PJ Fleck, Minnesota HC
Bill O'Brien, Bama OC
Lance Leipold, Kansas HC
Frankly, I think any of these names would make sense. If it were me, I think Hart or Leipold would be my first interviews.
Harbaugh isn't the only Big Ten prominent figure considering a promotion. Conference commissioner Kevin Warren is also flirting (now accepted) with a return to the professional ranks as the President and CEO of the local Chicago Bears.
Warren has experience in the NFL, last serving as COO of the Vikings from 2015-2019. Prior to this, he built up his football business acumen through two decades of operations practice. Since taking over the Big Ten, he has also shown a knack for big thinking such as when he orchestrated the massive conference realignment of USC and UCLA joining the conference to keep up with the SEC's own expansion.
While with the VIkings, Warren also organized the team's construction of a new arena, something the Bears have their sites set on. The hands-on experience in Minnesota will prove invaluable.
Though the title might sound cooler, and getting to work in the professional ranks might seem like the ultimate destination job, many are questioning whether this would actually be a step up for Warren. Managing a single team presents a much smaller opportunity for influence than does managing 16 college programs.
While it's impossible to know what Warren's professional ambitions are, this horizontal (or even downward) move might be reflective of the mess that college football is quickly becoming with NIL, the transfer portal, and a terribly-constructed calendar. Just think about the issues facing the (likely) next commissioner:
Media rights deals (though the conference is set for the rest of this decade, there are still explorations of sub packages, and it's never too early to prep for the next deal)
Managing playoff changes, both from formatting and with scheduling
Potential player classification changes as employee status for student athletes gains momentum
Further conference expansion
That sounds miserable. If anything, the move might mean that Warren gets a lighter workload, bigger payday, and he doesn't even have to move as he already lives within transit distance of Soldier Field.
One of Warren's first orders of business will now be deciding between drafting a generational defensive prospect in Will Anderson Jr. or trading the first pick away to add even more weapons to build around young quarterback Justin Fields.
Good for you, Kev.
Eyes have now turned to finding a replacement for the Big Ten conference commissioner role, and it seems likely that the university presidents will look to poach a sitting commissioner from any of the non-SEC conferences. ESPN insider Pete Thamel reports that the ACC's Jim Phillips, a former member of the Northwestern administration, might be call numero uno.
Checking LinkedIn jobs rn.
I guess we no longer have games to prep for... 😐
However, Vegas has already released its national championship odds for next season, and they're banking on a Dawgs threepeat. Rounding out the rest of the top six:
Bama (+500)
Ohio State (+800)
Michigan (+1000)
USC & Clemson (each +1400)
There are also already way-too-early ESPN rankings, and they're pretty interesting. Some notables:
The top six don't match up with the Vegas odds. While UGA is still on top, the next five are tOSU, Michigan, Florida State(!), Bama, and Penn State. USC came in at 7 and Clemson at 15...
TCU is expected to take a step back and sits at 12. The expectations are (deservedly) low for the Big 12, as the Frogs are still the top ranked team in the conference, followed by Texas at 16, Kansas State at 18, and Texas Tech at 23.
The Pac-12 should be one of the most exciting conferences in the country next year, and the rankings reflect this. They placed 5 teams in the top 25 (USC 7, Oregon 9, Washington 11, Utah 13, and Oregon State 17), tying the SEC for most ranked teams.
These will undoubtedly change over the next few months given that not all high school recruits are signed and hundreds of players remain in the transfer portal (and more will enter after spring practices), but it's always fun to see what the big media companies project next year to look like with conference championships and bowl results fresh on their minds.
Cheers to another day,
Trey